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ACUS11 KWNS 300822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300821
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-301015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0951
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Central and northeast MN...northern WI into western
Upper MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244...

Valid 300821Z - 301015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/damaging winds and hail remain the primary
severe-weather hazards as bands of storms track from central into
northeast Minnesota and extreme northwest Wisconsin during the
overnight and early morning. Current radar trends and favorable
environment suggest a new severe-thunderstorm watch may be needed
for part of Upper Michigan by 10-11Z (6-7 AM EDT).

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated storms across
central MN had grown upscale into a forward-propagating MCS, with
the leading band of storms extending from southern St. Louis County
to western Pine County, and moving toward the east-northeast at 40
kt. This storm motion is oriented parallel to an instability
gradient which extended from the ongoing line of storms through
northeast MN and northwest WI through Lake Superior and
western/northern Upper MI. A southwesterly low-level jet of 50 kt
at MPX will continue a feed of very strong instability into this MCS
for further storm development, with forward propagation and the
severe-weather threat persisting into the morning across northeast
MN, extreme northern WI and part of Upper MI.

Hail should be the primary severe-weather threat with the stronger
storms located on the northern periphery of the MCS across far
northern MN, given the presence of moderate instability and 40-50 kt
of effective bulk shear.

Meanwhile, additional storms have formed across west-central WI
within an apparent low-level warm air advection regime in the apex
of the low-level jet. Given the presence of very strong instability
and steep midlevel lapse rates, severe hail cannot be ruled out with
the stronger storms developing with this activity as it spreads
across northern WI to western Upper MI this morning.

..Peters/Guyer.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 45759337 46579375 47539442 47799440 48069354 48569340
48489249 48149075 47968933 47588838 47488777 46788730
46488710 45748735 45258797 45079002 45099116 45199210
45669297 45759337



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