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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0007

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, January 04, 2019 08:04:57
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040704
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040704
    FLZ000-ALZ000-040900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0007
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0104 AM CST Fri Jan 04 2019

    Areas affected...Western/Central FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 040704Z - 040900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A low-probability threat exists for damaging wind gust
    and/or a brief tornado during the next 2 hours or so across the
    western and central FL Panhandle.

    DISCUSSION...A strongly forced but shallow convective band continues
    to move eastward at 25-30 kt into the far western FL Peninsula. Air
    mass ahead of this line is modestly moist with dewpoints generally
    in the mid/upper 60s. However, warm temperatures aloft and the
    resulting lack of steeper lapse rates is tempering overall
    instability. Modified RAP soundings estimate MLCAPE on the order of
    250-350 J/kg across the western/central FL Panhandle.

    In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, kinematic fields are
    quite strong. Recent EVX VAD profiles show deep unidirectional
    southwesterly flow aloft. When modifying these profiles with
    observed surface winds from VPS, estimates of 0-1 km SRH are over
    220 m2/s2 and of 0-1 km bulk shear are over 30 kt. This strongly
    sheared low-level environment supports the potential for storm
    rotation, even within shallow convection. As such, there is a
    low-probability threat for a damaging wind gust and perhaps even a
    brief tornado during the next 2 hours or so.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 01/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30668738 30778707 30848642 30798564 30548549 30188573
    30228625 30258684 30228740 30668738



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