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ACUS11 KWNS 031107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031106
OKZ000-TXZ000-031600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 AM CST Thu Jan 03 2019

Areas affected...Portions of the eastern TX Panhandle into western
north TX...and western/central/eastern OK

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 031106Z - 031600Z

SUMMARY...A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will
continue through mid-morning (16Z/10 AM CST).

DISCUSSION...A swath of precipitation is ongoing this morning across
western north TX into western/central OK associated with large-scale
ascent ahead of an upper low over the southern High Plains. Much of
this precipitation is occurring where surface temperatures are
at/below freezing, and multiple observation sites across
western/central OK have been reporting freezing rain as the
predominant precipitation type for the past several hours. Lowered
dual-pol CC from area radars suggest that sleet is very likely
mixing with freezing rain from the vicinity of Wichita Falls, TX
northeastward to Lawton and Chickasha, OK as of 11Z. Slightly cooler temperatures around 850 mb (around 0 to +2C) across this region per
RAP mesoanalysis estimates should continue to support a mix of sleet
and freezing rain in the short term. A gradual transition to mainly
snow should occur from west to east through mid-morning (16Z/10 AM
CST) across parts of the TX Panhandle, western north TX, and
western/central OK as the residual warm nose centered around 850 mb
erodes and the low levels cool below freezing with the eastward
movement of the upper low. Some potential for moderate to locally
heavy snow, with rates possibly up to 1 inch per hour, may
materialize over parts of southwestern into west-central OK and
adjacent portions of western north TX.

Farther east into central/eastern OK, this transition from freezing
rain/sleet will probably be slower to occur given the closed nature
of the upper low and its expected limited eastward movement this
morning. An area of mainly freezing rain could persist for at least
several more hours from the OKC metro area northeastward along the
I-44 corridor towards Tulsa, where short-term guidance indicates the
+2 to 4C 850 mb warm nose will remain in place. Freezing rain rates
of 0.05 to 0.10 inch per 3 hours may occur, although surface
temperatures near freezing (30-32F) and weak winds should limit
substantial ice accretion to mainly elevated surfaces. The greatest
uncertainty in dominant precipitation type unfortunately resides
over the OKC metro area, where a narrow west-to-east transition from
all snow to nearly all freezing rain may exist this morning.

..Gleason.. 01/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 32879970 33370051 33660084 33840098 34640083 35100068
35550045 35779999 36099865 36209772 36329676 36279614
36159571 35749568 35379584 34699682 34429707 33859761
33039857 32859906 32879970



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