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ACUS11 KWNS 030519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030519
OKZ000-TXZ000-031115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CST Wed Jan 02 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas...southwest into
central Oklahoma

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 030519Z - 031115Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain (0.05-0.10 in/3 hr accumulation rates) and
occasional sleet continues across the area, and is expected to
continue into the morning hours, before transitioning to snow.

DISCUSSION...Light to occasionally moderate precipitation, induced
by ascent provided by an approaching 500 mb cut-off low, has been
ongoing for the last several hours, with occasional sleet and at
least a light glazing of ice from freezing rain observed. Given the
approach of the aforementioned upper-level low, large-scale ascent
will continue to overspread the area, supporting more light to
moderate precipitation into the early morning hours.

Temperatures remain below freezing at the surface, though a slight
warm up has been observed within the last hour (i.e 1-2F rise
in/around the OKC metro). Hydrometeor melting continues in the
850-700 mb layer, where temperatures remain near/above freezing. As
such, freezing rain mixed with some sleet will likely remain the
primary precipitation type through the early morning hours, as
supported by the latest RAP point forecast soundings and high
resolution ensemble guidance. This will especially be the case along
an axis from FDR, to OUN and SRE, where a near-continuous band of
light to moderate precipitation has become established and is
translating along this axis.

As sub-freezing temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer advect eastward
over the area with the approaching upper-level low,
deep-tropospheric vertical profiles will become more supportive of
snow reaching the surface at or shortly before sunrise.

..Squitieri.. 01/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31010130 31790087 33270047 34050008 34679913 35629822
35999731 36179657 35809598 35239546 34649525 34259565
33579741 32179932 31010130



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