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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0949

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 30, 2018 03:57:49
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 300357
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300357
    MNZ000-SDZ000-300500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0949
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1057 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

    Areas affected...west-central into northeast MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 300357Z - 300500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may continue to develop and intensify. A
    severe thunderstorm watch will be considered contingent on
    additional increase in coverage and storms intensifying further.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and lightning data show thunderstorms
    developing near a southwest-northeast surface front over
    west-central MN. KABR and KMPX VAD data 40kt 1-2 km AGL flow with a
    LLJ terminus located over the Upper MS Valley. Surface temperatures
    over central MN are in the lower 80s degrees F with lower 70s
    dewpoints yielding a very unstable airmass (over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE)
    when accounting for nocturnal cooling with the 00Z MPX RAOB.

    The main limiting factors for severe thunderstorm development
    include (20-30kt 0-6 km shear) and the lack of strong deep ascent.
    Nonetheless, the environment is conditionally supportive of
    multicells capable of a risk for isolated severe hail/damaging
    gusts. Convective trends will be monitored in the short term.

    ..Smith/Edwards.. 06/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 45359649 45919648 47879375 48049234 47649164 47069176
    44909487 44939582 45359649



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