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ACUS11 KWNS 240134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240133
TXZ000-240330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0848
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Areas affected...TX Big Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240133Z - 240330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and strong/damaging wind gusts will be the
primary severe-weather hazards with the remains severe storms that
occur across the Texas Big Country until about 10 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated a few
robust/sustained severe storms remained located across the TX Big
Country this evening. Objective analyses showed these storms were
located within an axis of very strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000
J/kg) and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt. Forcing for ascent
attendant to a weak midlevel, eastward-moving, impulse will support
additional strong to severe storms in the short term with favorable
CAPE/shear parameter space resulting in hail and strong/damaging
wind gusts as the main severe threats. The overall severe risks
should diminish by 03Z as the onset of surface cooling stabilizes
the boundary layer, rapidly increasing inhibition.

..Peters/Grams.. 06/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31800150 32860045 33209971 33129896 32489931 31600023
31490110 31550148 31800150



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