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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1748

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, December 31, 2018 18:50:35
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 311750
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311750
    MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-312345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1748
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1150 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

    Areas affected...Central Iowa through northern Michigan

    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

    Valid 311750Z - 312345Z

    SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation is expected to develop/continue
    from central Iowa northeastward through northern Michigan along/near
    a surface front this afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is expected to continue
    moving northeast from northern Missouri into the Great Lakes this afternoon/evening. An associated surface low, now located in
    northern Missouri, will follow a similar track to the northeast into
    Michigan. Cold air advection on the backside of the upper-level
    trough/surface low will lower surface temperatures and eventually
    erode the warm nose between 925-850 mb. This will result in
    sleet/freezing rain initially before turning into snow in/near the
    rain/snow transition zone stretching from DMX toward MBS. Brief
    heavy snow is possible when the upper-level trough passes overhead
    with portions of south-central Wisconsin/northern Michigan having
    the best chances for 1"/hour snowfall rates this afternoon/evening
    as low-level frontogenetical forcing strengthens.

    ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 12/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...
    DMX...

    LAT...LON 41589422 41849437 42219437 42719388 43329264 43899128
    44439008 44848908 45608684 45878597 45838465 45618394
    45428355 45088329 44738328 44398338 44088357 43698405
    43488471 43318559 43138652 42818791 42638910 42479004
    42349079 42089179 41659313 41529358 41459407 41589422



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