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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1745

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, December 31, 2018 04:48:33
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 310348
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310348
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-310845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1745
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0948 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast Montana...portions of northern
    Wyoming...extreme western South Dakota

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 310348Z - 310845Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall (up to 1 in/hr rates in the lower terrain
    and 2 in/hr rates in the higher elevations) is expected for at least
    the next few hours. With strong sustained northwesterly winds
    accompanying the cold front, a few brief instances of blizzard
    conditions cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...A relatively strong, deep cold front (extending up to
    700 mb) is rapidly progressing across portions of the northern
    Rockies, providing strong low-level convergence and deep-layer CAA
    (through at least 850 mb) across complex terrain. Frontal
    convergence, combined with orographic lift, will help to induce
    vigorous rising motion through a near-saturated 700 mb layer, and a
    very deep (1000-1500 m) dendritic-growth zone, promoting very
    efficient dendrite production and associated snowfall accumulations.
    Up to 1 in/hr snowfall rates are likely in the lower terrain, but
    higher rates (2 in/hr) may be common in the higher terrain, where
    upslope flow and subsequent orographic lift may enhance snowfall
    production.

    In addition, strong northwesterly surface winds are accompanying the
    cold front, with up to 30 knot sustained winds (with higher gusts)
    recently observed by the Johnson City/Buffalo WY ASOS. As such, a
    few instances of blizzard conditions may be observed over the next
    few hours as the cold front passes.

    ..Squitieri.. 12/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43630715 44560855 45240917 45740906 45980870 46050784
    45910624 45710526 45470422 45250360 44720326 44100324
    43560386 43390488 43400580 43630715



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