• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1744

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, December 31, 2018 02:10:02
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310109
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310109
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-310515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1744
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0709 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...extreme southeast North Dakota...extreme western Minnesota

    Concerning...Freezing rain

    Valid 310109Z - 310515Z

    SUMMARY...Freezing rain is underway across the area, with up to
    0.05-0.10 inches/3 hour rates expected over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A surface low, located across central South Dakota, in
    tandem with an ejecting shortwave trough, are contributing to ascent
    across the area, where subfreezing surface wet-bulb temperatures are
    present. Temperatures within the 925-850 mb layer however, are above
    freezing, contributing to the melting of otherwise frozen
    hydrometeors in a sub-freezing troposphere. Latest PFC RAP soundings
    suggest up to 0.50 inches of precipitable water reside across
    northeast South Dakota, suggesting that the aforementioned ascent
    will continue to promote light to occasionally moderate freezing
    rain for the next 4-5 hours, as also supported by latest model
    guidance.

    After around 0400-0500Z, a cold front is expected to move through
    the area, with temperatures throughout the troposphere dropping
    below freezing. Snow will then become the predominant precipitation
    type.

    ..Squitieri.. 12/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 44399748 44339906 45059976 45769991 46039893 46069740
    45839671 45409627 44929627 44399688 44399748



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