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ACUS11 KWNS 232338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232337
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Areas affected...Parts of eastern and southeast CO...western
KS...extreme northeast NM and the OK Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206...

Valid 232337Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206
continues.

SUMMARY...Clustering of storms across east-central CO into adjacent
northwest KS are expected to grow upscale into a forward-propagating
MCS this evening into tonight, tracking to the south/southeast.
Large hail will continue to be a severe threat this evening, though strong/damaging winds are expected to become the primary severe
hazard later this evening to the early overnight.

DISCUSSION...Storms that formed and continue to affect the northern
part of WW 206 have produced severe hail as the primary hazard so
far. However, trends in mosaic radar imagery across east-central CO
and adjacent northwest KS suggest upscale growth is underway with
some linear structure from Cheyenne County CO to Wallace County KS.
Wind profile per GLD radar indicated strengthening deep-layer winds
which were veering with height. Downstream objective analyses
across southeast CO, southwest KS into far northeast NM, OK/TX
Panhandles and northwest OK indicated very strong instability
(MLCAPE exceeding 2000-3000 J/kg) and effective bulk shear exceeding
40-45 kt. This CAPE/shear parameter space combined with further
strengthening of a southerly low-level jet into western KS this
evening suggests forward propagation will become likely, with
damaging winds the primary severe-weather threat into the late
evening across southeast CO, southwest KS to the OK Panhandle.

..Peters.. 06/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36770102 36520155 36170241 35760330 36270394 36990417
37170422 37530429 37780412 38830392 39100371 39060289
39280172 39540112 39560046 39230014 37350030 36770102



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