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ACUS11 KWNS 232209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232209
NEZ000-SDZ000-240015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Areas affected...Southeast SD and northeast into east-central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232209Z - 240015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible into
this evening across southeast South Dakota and northeast to
east-central Nebraska. A marginal severe risk precludes the need
for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated a broken band
of discrete storms developed and continued to form this afternoon to
early evening in vicinity of a surface boundary extending southeast
from an area of low pressure in central SD. The boundary extended
into eastern NE to far eastern KS, where the environment is moist
(surface dew points into the middle 60s) and temperatures near and
west of the boundary had warmed into the 80s contributing to
moderate buoyancy. Although midlevel heights will be rising this
evening across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, forcing
for ascent attendant to an eastward-moving midlevel circulation
across SD and eastern NE should favor additional sustained updrafts
until the boundary-layer stabilizes later this evening. Despite
modest midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy and vertically
veering winds suggest CAPE/shear parameter space will result in a
couple additional rotating updrafts, with a marginal risk for all
severe hazards.

..Peters/Grams.. 06/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 43569752 42249677 41219624 40859673 40929725 42609788
43399801 43569752



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