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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1741

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, December 28, 2018 10:16:15
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280916
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280915
    ALZ000-MSZ000-281015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1741
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0315 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

    Areas affected...southwest AL...far southern MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 280915Z - 281015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for mesocyclones may maximize with
    quasi-discrete storms as they merge with the squall line. A modest
    conditional risk for a brief/weak tornado and/or wind damage would
    likely focus with rotating convective structures.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a warm front over
    southwest AL extending east but arcing to the southeast towards
    Dothan. South of the boundary, surface-based buoyancy (750-1000
    J/kg SBCAPE) will support updraft vigor in combination with
    low-level shear aiding in storm organization. It seems a condition
    of a stronger/deeper and more persistent updraft (characterized by
    echo tops exceeding 30,000 ft) is needed to potentially acquire
    low-level rotation. Yet, based on radar analysis during the past
    several hours, storm intensification may also need a favorable cold-pool-merging interaction between a quasi-discrete storm and the
    squall line. Given the conditional environment is favorable for
    storm rotation but only one storm has realized this potential, will
    continue to monitor activity over the central Gulf Coast.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 12/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30208948 32088807 32378735 32008663 31638710 30298867
    30208948



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