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ACUS11 KWNS 280759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280759 COR
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-281345-
Mesoscale Discussion 1740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018
Areas affected...Upstate New York into northern/central Vermont and
New Hampshire
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 280759Z - 281345Z
CORRECTED FOR INCLUSION OF FREEZING RAIN RATES.
SUMMARY...A wintry mix of precipitation, mainly in the form of
freezing rain (accumulation rates around .05-.10 in/3 hrs) and
sleet, is expected across the area through sunrise, before a
transition to all rain occurs.
DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough and associated surface cyclone
will impinge on the area throughout the evening, with broad 30+ knot southwesterly flow in the 925-850 mb layer promoting very strong WAA
into the early morning hours. Current RAP analysis soundings suggest subfreezing profiles are present across much of the upper Hudson
Valley/New England area, with temperatures below freezing at the
surface as indicated by observations.
Recent KENX and KCXX dual-polarimetric radar data has shown
relatively higher ZDR/lower CC signatures associated with
precipitation currently falling across the area, suggesting a wintry
mix of freezing rain and perhaps sleet is ongoing. As strong WAA
continues across the region, temperatures aloft and at the surface
are expected to encroach the freezing mark, transitioning wintry
mixed precipitation to all rain, from portions of upstate New York
during the early morning hours, to northern portions of New England
after sunrise.
..Squitieri.. 12/28/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42817531 43207598 43657619 44067602 44547569 44857524
45007480 45007319 44917232 44867139 44147141 43597144
43147176 42927218 42797399 42817531
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