• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1738

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, December 28, 2018 01:08:13
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280008
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280007
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1738
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0607 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...far southeast North Dakota...western/northern Minnesota

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 280007Z - 280500Z

    SUMMARY...Brief periods of heavy snow, with accumulations of up to 1
    inch/hr are possible over the next few hours. In addition, brief,
    isolated instances of blizzard conditions may also occur.

    DISCUSSION...A 996 mb surface low, currently located across
    north-central IA, is expected to continue moving off to the
    northeast for the next several hours, with little change in
    intensity forecast. A steady stream of 925-850 mb moisture continues
    to advect into the Mississippi valley region, where relatively
    strong 850 mb frontogenesis continues to support continued lift of
    these moist air parcels within a sub-freezing troposphere
    (especially from central MN, westward). While the dendritic growth
    zone across the discussion area is not particularly deep (i.e.
    700-900 m), near-saturation to saturated conditions in the 925-500
    mb layer with sub-freezing temps, combined with modest lift suggests
    that at least some brief heavy snow potential exists, including for
    snowfall rates of up to 1+ inches/hr.

    Blizzard conditions have also been reported along the western
    periphery of the low throughout the day, and with little change in
    surface low intensity and associated gradient wind expected,
    additional instances of blizzard conditions remain possible for at
    least the next few hours, especially in portions of eastern South
    Dakota.

    ..Squitieri.. 12/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 43179594 43209675 44229707 44459825 45969800 46749610
    47519283 47959064 47679042 46929203 46209388 45139536
    43179594



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