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ACUS11 KWNS 271951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271950
MSZ000-LAZ000-272115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 448...

Valid 271950Z - 272115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong convection should sag southeast across ww448 over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent is lifting well north of
ww448 across the TN/OH Valley region. Trailing band of convection
that stretches across eastern MS into southeast LA is increasingly
detached from the short-wave trough that is ejecting across the
Midwest. As LLJ refocuses north of the watch it appears lower MS
Valley band of convection should gradually propagate southeast
toward somewhat higher instability air mass located near the central
Gulf coast. Even so, 18z sounding from LIX does not exhibit
appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy; however, mid-level lapse rates
are steep and substantial elevated cape does exist when lifting a
parcel from 1km above the surface. Locally damaging winds appear to
be the greatest risk with thunderstorms as they progress across the
remainder of ww448.

..Darrow.. 12/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29399199 32159197 32878952 30128952 29399199



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