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ACUS11 KWNS 271501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271500
MSZ000-LAZ000-271600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271500Z - 271600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will progress across portions of the lower
MS Valley this morning. Primary severe threat is locally damaging
winds, although a tornado or two can not be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...50-100mi wide band of strong/severe convection that
evolved over TX has shifted into LA early this morning. This
activity is sagging southeast at roughly 20kt with individual cells
lifting more quickly northeast along the leading edge of this
activity. Greatest buoyancy, more supportive of surface-based
supercells, is currently located over southern LA, but adequate
instability does extend into portions of southwest MS for
potentially robust updrafts. Latest thinking is ongoing squall line,
with embedded robust updrafts, will shift across the lower MS with
an attendant wind threat. Greatest risk for tornadoes remains across
LA where mid 60s surface dew points currently reside.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 12/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30279223 31359213 32809094 32448985 30229106 30279223



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