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ACUS11 KWNS 231937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231936
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018
Areas affected...Portions of the southern/central High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231936Z - 232130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms could pose a risk for large hail
and damaging winds into this evening. Watch issuance could be
needed.
DISCUSSION...A few strong/severe storms have developed near the
Palmer Divide eastward into northwest Kansas this afternoon, amidst
an environment characterized by favorable effective shear, but
modest boundary-layer moisture (e.g., upper 40s/lower 50s dew
points). Still, sufficient mixed-layer buoyancy exists for isolated multicells/splitting supercells, capable of large hail and damaging
winds. If a few cells continue to organize and evolve southeastward
into improved storm-relative flow and higher dew points, an
increasing severe threat would likely evolve, perhaps in the form of
a small convective complex. As such, convective trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.
..Picca/Thompson.. 06/23/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37380089 36610234 36490345 36810384 37220401 37960403
38610412 39390414 39510396 39630343 39660210 39520114
39030067 38040046 37380089
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