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ACUS11 KWNS 231917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231917
OKZ000-TXZ000-232115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 231917Z - 232115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western/central
Oklahoma by late afternoon. Several will likely become severe,
accompanied by a threat of large hail (some potentially 2+" in
diameter), damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows developing cumulus
along a boundary extending from western Oklahoma east/southeastward
to near Norman. A 19Z OUN sounding sampled a subsidence inversion
near 850-800 mb, although it has lifted considerably since 12Z.
Subtle mid-level ascent is currently overspreading the region, and
modest cooling aloft should combine with further surface heating to
remove remaining inhibition over the next couple of hours. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and a warm/moist boundary layer should
contribute to around 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE as well. In turn, once
profiles near 850-700mb moisten sufficiently, rather robust
convection is forecast to develop near the boundary.

Ample veering of winds with height will likely support one or more high-precipitation supercells, capable of very large hail (2+" in
diameter possible) and damaging winds. Although storm-relative
helicity is not particularly strong, backed near-surface flow and
any southeasterly propagation component may locally enhance the
potential for a tornado. Over time, intense precipitation
cores/outflow will likely force upscale growth into a complex that
accelerates south/southeast towards the Red River. Considering the
threat, watch issuance will likely be needed within the next few
hours.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33339846 33409869 33859926 34769975 35249980 35689982
35789966 35729861 35649794 35589733 35009673 34069635
33479628 33329697 33329770 33339846



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