• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1728

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, December 26, 2018 23:59:38
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262258
    TXZ000-270000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1728
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0458 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Southwest
    Oklahoma...North Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 262258Z - 270000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A wind damage threat will likely develop this evening
    across parts of southwest Oklahoma into north Texas. A brief tornado
    or two will be possible as well. Weather watch issuance will be
    needed across the region shortly.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a squall-line from the
    southeast Texas Panhandle extending south-southeastward into
    west-central Texas. This line will continue to move eastward into an
    axis of moderate instability where MLCAPE values are estimated by
    the RAP to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the
    Frederick WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear of 60-65 kt with veering
    winds with height in the lowest 2 km AGL. This environment will
    favorable for wind damage as the line moves eastward. An isolated
    tornado threat can not be ruled out with the more intense bowing
    structures within the line.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 12/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33499985 32429989 31730003 31100040 30670067 30440054
    30140016 30179891 30259725 30639688 31399663 32059698
    33259754 33609783 33809836 33889972 33639986 33499985



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