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ACUS11 KWNS 262244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262243
TXZ000-270045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

Areas affected...Northwest to North Texas Southward into Texas Hill
Country

Concerning...Tornado Watch 442...

Valid 262243Z - 270045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 442 continues.

SUMMARY...The wind damage threat will increase over the next few
hours from northwest Texas southward into the Texas Hill Country. An
isolated tornado threat will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a cluster of semi
discrete thunderstorms in north-central Texas. This activity is
located along the axis of a 40-55 kt low-level jet. Strong low-level
shear associated with this feature will support an isolated tornado
threat along or just to the east of tornado watch 442.

Further to the west, a large-scale bowing line segment is present
from the southeast Texas Panhandle extending into west-central and
southwest Texas. This line will continue to hold together as it
moves eastward into increasing instability. An axis of moderate
instability (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) is present just ahead of the
line according to he RAP. This combined with strong large-scale
ascent ahead of a southern Rockies upper-level trough and strong
deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains, will enable the
line to continue to have a wind damage threat. As the line moves
eastward into the western edge of the low-level jet, an isolated
tornado threat will also exist. The tornado threat will be
associated with rotating cells embedded in the line.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 12/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 33499985 32429989 31730003 31100040 30670067 30440054
30140016 30179891 30259725 30639688 31399663 32059698
33259754 33609783 33809836 33889972 33639986 33499985



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