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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0837

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 23, 2018 17:39:20
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231739
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231738
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-231845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0837
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

    Areas affected...southeast and eastern VA...DelMarVa...northeast
    North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 231738Z - 231845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An organized thunderstorm risk, yielding weak supercells
    and multicells, will likely be capable of isolated to widely
    scattered 45-60 mph gusts this afternoon. Localized wind damage is
    the primary hazard.

    DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the
    upper OH Valley/central Appalachians pivoting eastward towards the
    Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible imagery shows a
    swelling cumulus field across the coastal plain of VA into the
    greater Raleigh, NC metro. Surface analysis shows temperatures
    warming to the 88-92 degree F range within a very moist airmass (12Z
    MHX RAOB 18.3 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio). Although
    700-500 lapse rates are weak (at or below 5.4 degrees C/km per 12Z
    regional RAOBs), strengthening southwesterly flow with height (45-50
    kt at 500mb per KAKQ VAD data) results in 40 kt 0-6 km shear
    supportive of a weak supercell/organized multicell mode. Damaging
    winds will likely be the primary hazard with gusts in the 45-60 mph
    range.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 36057857 38237724 38957517 38487488 35827563 35607628
    35547766 36057857



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