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ACUS11 KWNS 130953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130952
SDZ000-NEZ000-131545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...the southwest quarter of South Dakota and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 130952Z - 131545Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates locally in excess of 1"/hr near the Black
Hills should expand eastward with time across a larger portion of
the southwest South Dakota Vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface obs show gradually cooling temperatures
across the discussion area, with what appears to be melting-enhanced
cooling in the Black Hills area (the temperature fell to a now
steady 32 degrees at Rapid City over the past couple of hours).
Persistent moderate to heavy snowfall is indicated by radar within a deformation zone across the Black Hills area, with rainfall farther
south and east where temperatures remain in the mid to upper 30s.

However, as the slow-moving upper system drifts eastward, continued
gradual cooling/persistent precipitation across a larger portion of
southwest South Dakota should result in an eastward expansion of
substantial snowfall -- in line with latest model output. Strength
of ascent across the region -- and possibly some convective
enhancement -- suggests snowfall rates exceeding 1" per hour can be
expected over the next several hours.

..Goss.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43960323 44600323 44970280 45170202 44229987 43180019
42870161 42970263 43380317 43960323



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ACUS11 KWNS 242212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242211
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Areas affected...Central/southern Missouri and southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32...

Valid 242211Z - 250015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues in WW32 with large hail as the
primary threat. Storms should continue moving east over the next 3-4
hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple severe warned storms have developed within
WW32 along/ahead of a cold front in central/southern Missouri. Large
hail continues to be the primary severe threat with cold air aloft
and mostly unidirectional shear through the vertical profile
yielding around 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear. Damaging wind
gusts remain possible, but as daytime heating begins to wane,
low-level lapse rates will diminish limiting this threat.
Additionally, a brief, weak tornado is possible, but low-level flow
is relatively weak and surface winds are mostly south-southwest
limiting SRH. Storms should continue moving east across
central/southern Missouri into southern Illinois through 03z. As the
cold front slides southeast, the severe threat will diminish across
WW32 from west to east through the evening.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 03/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36489349 36579358 36849347 37279312 37949256 38659197
38789150 38859067 38918954 38838880 38688858 38368852
37968865 37388892 36958934 36648968 36509013 36499186
36489349



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