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ACUS11 KWNS 261829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261828
TXZ000-262030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

Areas affected...Parts of Central and Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 261828Z - 262030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will increase across parts of central and
northwest TX as the afternoon evolves.

DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection appears mostly
responsible for gradual increase in deep convection from the
northern Hill Country into northwest TX. LLJ is forecast to
strengthen across northwest TX into southwest OK into late afternoon
and a corridor of scattered strong thunderstorms may ultimately
evolve along this axis over the next 2-4 hours as the source region
for updrafts gradually lowers into the boundary layer. Latest
observations suggest near-surfaced based parcels are already buoyant
and temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70F will result in no
CINH. Latest thinking is scattered supercells should evolve ahead of
maturing squall line and given the strong shear the tornado threat
should increase. Tornado watch will likely be issued by 20z to
account for this threat.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 12/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33959879 32459771 30969808 30489947 30960043 33669998
33959879



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