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ACUS11 KWNS 261733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261733
TXZ000-261930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1724
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 261733Z - 261930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Strong/severe convection is expected to develop across
west Texas early this afternoon. Damaging winds and some hail are
possible with this activity. Watch will likely be issued by 19z.

DISCUSSION...Strong large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading
across southeast NM/West TX at roughly 25kt. Latest satellite
imagery suggests the leading edge of this forcing will begin to
influence boundary-layer convection over the next few hours. Morning
CAMS support this with significant convection expected to develop
around 19z along the wind shift. This activity will be strongly
sheared but should quickly evolve into a squall line that will
advance east across the TX South Plains toward the Big Country
region. Wind and hail are expected with the squall line.

Secondly, warm advection-induced convection is expected to gradually
intensify across parts of northwest TX into the mid afternoon hours.
It's not entirely clear when this activity will root into the
boundary layer such that more intense updrafts evolve into severe
supercells. This scenario is expected to materialize later this
afternoon upon which the tornado threat will increase accordingly.
Initial watch may reflect the forced squall line with subsequent
watches addressing the increased tornado potential downstream.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 12/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 30340241 32340255 34100289 34940224 34630064 31430046
30280098 30340241



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