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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0836

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 23, 2018 15:32:53
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 231532
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231532
    TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0836
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1032 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the Tennessee Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 231532Z - 231700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A small thunderstorm complex with some damaging wind
    potential will continue east across the region through early
    afternoon. A watch could be considered, if convective trends
    warrant.

    DISCUSSION...A localized convective system, likely enhanced by an
    MCV and focused confluence/ascent, is moving east across southern TN
    and northern AL around 35-45 mph this morning. 12Z regional
    soundings sampled unimpressive mid-level lapse rates, and continued precipitation to the south is limiting insolation ahead of this
    line. Furthermore, KCRX in northeast MS did not register a strong
    surface gust with passage of the line. Still, some filtered sunlight
    (with a modest enhancement of low-level lapse rates) and around
    35-45 kt of 850-500mb flow may support enough downward momentum
    transport for a few damaging gusts through early afternoon, and a
    watch may be considered if organizational trends warrant.

    ..Picca/Thompson.. 06/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35398821 35598677 35778507 35638472 35268447 34498459
    34218483 34048567 33958736 34558801 35398821



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