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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0834

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 23, 2018 09:45:22
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    ACUS11 KWNS 230945
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230945
    MSZ000-ARZ000-231115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0834
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0445 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

    Areas affected...Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

    Valid 230945Z - 231115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will continue through the
    morning hours. Large hail and gusty winds will be the primary
    threats.

    DISCUSSION...Long-lived quasi-linear convective system
    (QLCS)/mesoscale convective system (MCS) turned eastward across
    southeast Oklahoma and continues to progress eastward through
    Arkansas. The activity appears to be moving along the north side of
    a theta-e gradient, with the best moisture and instability to the
    south of the precipitation shield. However, sufficient instability
    and deep-layer shear across Arkansas should allow for a few more
    hours of isolated large hail and gusty thunderstorm wind potential.
    The combination of additional thunderstorm development ahead of the
    ongoing QLCS/MCS, and a cooler, more stable airmass across northern Mississippi, should promote an overall weakening trend. This appears
    to be underway as latest IR satellite imagery has indicated a
    warming of cloud temperatures of late.

    A local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 may be necessary
    for portions of east-central Arkansas, and the need for this will be
    monitored.

    ..Marsh.. 06/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33809437 35119346 35119127 34199080 33569182 33809437



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