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ACUS11 KWNS 211934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211933
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-212030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Fri Dec 21 2018

Areas affected...far eastern West Virginia southward through far
northeastern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211933Z - 212030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Deepening/strengthening convection may result in a
brief/isolated strong wind gusts over the next several hours. A WW
is not currently anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite, radar, and lightning imagery
indicates scattered, gradually deepening convection along an axis
from near Greensboro, NC to Florence, SC. More isolated,
lightning-producing convection was located near central Virginia.
These storms were located in a strongly sheared environment with
weak instability. Southerly/unidirectional kinematic profiles with
mid-level flow exceeding 80 knots will contribute to updraft
organization, although modest instability (owing to low 50s
dewpoints and modest mid-level lapse rates) should keep any overall
severe threat fairly low. Nevertheless, any isolated cells that can
move to the right of the mean flow may exhibit weak mid-level
rotation at times (as noted in Cumberland County, Virginia), while
additional storms may result in areas of gusty winds that should
mostly stay below severe limits (i.e., 36-kt thunderstorm wind gust
near Florence, SC within the past hour). A WW issuance is not
anticipated due to the specious and low-end nature of the severe
threat.

..Cook.. 12/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 39177884 39427830 39277760 38357718 36137752 34777783
33957865 33867940 34577969 35987975 37247937 38027917
39177884



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