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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1720

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, December 20, 2018 23:56:03
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 202255
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202255
    FLZ000-210100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1720
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0455 PM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

    Areas affected...Southeastern Florida

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

    Valid 202255Z - 210100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An overall weakening trend has been observed in the
    ongoing convection in WW 440. A small area of modest instability
    still exists over southeast Florida. A strong wind gust or two will
    be the main threats for the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Per regional radar mosaic imagery, the gust front along
    the line of storms from near West Palm Beach to the portions of the
    Florida Keys has moved out ahead of convection. As this has
    occurred, an overall weakening trend has been observed in the
    ongoing convection. This is particularly true in northern portions
    of WW 440 where instability is lower than points to the south.

    With 40-50 kts of flow within the 850-700 mb layer, potential for a
    strong wind gust will exist over far southeastern Florida where
    MLCAPE will be maximized at 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak mid-level
    lapse rates, boundary-parallel deep layer shear, and a stabilizing
    boundary layer should limit overall storm intensity/organization.

    ..Wendt.. 12/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

    LAT...LON 25398109 26068076 26748033 27018001 26547958 25058006
    24558065 24508125 24478168 24608198 24888170 25398109



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