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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1718

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, December 20, 2018 19:42:01
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 201841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201841
    FLZ000-202045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1718
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1241 PM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

    Areas affected...much of central Florida

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 439...

    Valid 201841Z - 202045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 439 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat persists for the watch area, with
    primarily a damaging wind threat. An isolated tornado remains
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have become linear as the front and outflows
    have merged, and movement of the line currently has a substantial
    eastward component. Winds aloft are mainly parallel to the line, and
    objective analysis shows a general decrease in low-level helicity,
    in part due to substantial boundary layer mixing. As such, bowing
    segments will be capable of damaging winds, and brief areas of
    rotation may occur as well. A greater tornado threat would occur if
    the line could slow.

    Ahead of the line, scattered convective showers were deepening with
    heating, but these will have a lesser threat of severe weather
    compared to the main line as most of them remain decoupled from the
    surface layer. A supercell cannot be ruled out with this activity
    should a cell turn right of the mean motion.

    ..Jewell.. 12/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 25788214 27098159 28258129 29118122 29238088 28838053
    27558025 26868033 26308058 25818106 25738160 25738197
    25788214



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