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ACUS11 KWNS 201239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201238
FLZ000-201415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 201238Z - 201415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Given the expectation that severe/tornado risk will
gradually increase through this morning and into the afternoon,
tornado watch issuance will likely be required prior to 20/14Z.

DISCUSSION...As a leading band of south-southwest- to
north-northeast-oriented convection continues spreading inland
between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor on the west coast of Florida,
offshore updrafts exhibiting low-level rotation continue to move
onshore. This trend is expected to continue, with additional bands
of convection to move across the eastern Gulf and inland as the day
progresses -- bands currently evident over the eastern Gulf in
satellite and lightning loops.

While early-morning visible imagery shows extensive cloud cover
across much of central and south Florida, modest destabilization of
the boundary layer, along with continued moistening, should combine
with a very favorably sheared lower and middle troposphere to
support gradually increasing severe risk with time. Along with
increasing risk for damaging winds, a few tornadoes will also become increasingly likely.

Given this, expect tornado watch issuance to occur within the next
hour or so.

..Goss/Edwards.. 12/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 29398096 29148057 28188027 27238053 25788162 25818213
26428245 27208248 28538178 29398096



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