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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1715

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, December 20, 2018 12:29:28
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 201129
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201128
    FLZ000-201230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1715
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0528 AM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

    Areas affected...portions of the southwest coast of the Florida
    Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 201128Z - 201230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Limited risk for a brief tornado exists near the
    Tampa/Sarasota vicinities in the next 1-2 hours, but WW is not
    expected in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...Latest satellite and radar imagery reveal a broken band
    of convection oriented south-southwest to north-northeast over the
    eastern Gulf and extending to the west-central Florida coast near
    VNC/SRQ/TPA. This band is occurring in a broad area of QG ascent
    associated with a vort max crossing the north-central Gulf, and
    associated surface low analyzed just southwest of MOB at 10Z. A
    warm/moist boundary layer is spreading across south Florida, south
    and southeast of the aforementioned convective band, while
    persistent precipitation has maintained a cooler/less moist boundary
    layer from roughly VNC northward.

    With that said, several small circulations have been observed in
    WSR-88D VWP data, including a rather tight cyclonic couplet about 20
    miles SW of SRQ at 11:20Z. While present indications are that the
    boundary layer remains slightly stable inland, a brief tornado --
    particularly near the coast -- cannot be ruled out over the next 1-2
    hours, given the available/favorable environmental shear, as small
    circulations move off the Gulf/onshore.

    As the larger-scale system continues to advance, expect severe risk
    to increase, along with likelihood for WW issuance -- possibly
    within the next 2-3 hours.

    ..Goss/Edwards.. 12/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...

    LAT...LON 26998213 26568238 26348256 26218278 26118294 26318307
    26858291 27498268 27708242 27238219 26998213



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