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ACUS11 KWNS 230602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230601
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-230700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Areas affected...North-central and northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201...202...203...

Valid 230601Z - 230700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201, 202,
203 continues.

SUMMARY...Long-lived thunderstorm cluster continues to move
southeast across central Oklahoma. On its current trajectory, this
cluster will move into portions of north-central and northeast Texas
later this morning. Trends will be monitored for a potential Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived quasi-linear convective system (QLCS), with
history of severe winds or wind damage, continues to track southeast
across central Oklahoma. On its current trajectory, this cluster
will begin to impact areas to the south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
202 and southwest of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 in the next 1-2
hours. Additionally, if this trend/trajectory continues, much of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 may need to be canceled early as the
main severe threat will remain to the southwest.

The airmass across northeast Texas is characterized by most-unstable
CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 35-50
knots. However, as you move south of Severe Thunderstorm Watches 202
and 203, convective inhibition increases as well. Thinking is that
the QLCS should be maintained for at least another few hours as it
moves into the region, although confidence on maintaining severe
level intensity is less certain. As such, trends will be monitored
for the need of a small Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33609404 33839575 33989694 34309853 34519913 34779953
35169960 35539916 36349779 36869709 36719613 35539407
35029317 34489311 33779345 33609404



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