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ACUS11 KWNS 170237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170236
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-170630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of New England and eastern New York

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 170236Z - 170630Z

SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation is expected to continue/develop
across portions of New England and eastern New York overnight.
Freezing rain, sleet, and snow are all possible across the area.

DISCUSSION...A surface cyclone is centered south-southeast of Long
Island with an associated upper-level trough located almost directly
overhead. Forcing for ascent is spreading over much of New England
and portions of New York where precipitation has continued for
multiple hours. Surface temperatures are hovering near/above
freezing across much of the interior of New England and New York.
Radar imagery shows bright banding/melting layer at 3000-4500 ft.
AGL across central New England. However, the melting layer is
lowering with indications the warm nose is eroding aloft as cold air
advection and precipitation cools this layer. Additionally, KENX is
displaying characteristics of the melting layer lowering with
sleet/snow becoming more likely at the surface and across the higher
terrain with freezing rain also possible within the transition zone.
Trends toward winter mixed precipitation developing/expanding across
portions of New England are favorable overnight as the upper-level trough/surface low track east-northeast.

..Nauslar/Mosier.. 12/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 42037321 42107352 42357402 42747418 43037412 43317378
43457349 43597308 43747239 43867167 44057095 44087055
43987025 43747023 43547035 43307054 43187076 43017102
42787157 42667220 42567249 42427285 42227304 42037321



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