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ACUS11 KWNS 170208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170208
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-170315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0760
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018
Areas affected...Portions of north-central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 170208Z - 170315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will pose a risk of large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts this evening. A WW issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional mosaic radar imagery shows
thunderstorms increasing in coverage/intensity along and north of a
surface boundary across portions of north-central Minnesota. While
only transient updraft organization has been noted thus far -- MRMS
MESH values occasionally around 1" -- the environment across this
area does support further organization over the next few hours, with
MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 40-50
knots. Much of this activity is expected to remain elevated -- as it
will reside mostly to the north of the surface boundary. As such,
the primary severe threats are expected to be large hail. A WW
issuance is likely over parts of this area.
..Elliott/Guyer.. 06/17/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 47199583 47599523 47629438 47599234 47459201 46819082
46469024 45709010 45659081 45569359 45849468 46239472
46679474 46749538 46759590 47199583
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