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ACUS11 KWNS 170201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170201
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-170400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Areas affected...northeast South Dakota/southeast North Dakota...and
into central Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 180...

Valid 170201Z - 170400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 180 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk, along with potential for a tornado or two,
continues in/near WW 180.

DISCUSSION...An increase in convective coverage has been noted over
the past 1-2 hours in conjunction with an increase in warm advection
associated with a developing/south-southwesterly low-level jet.
Along with this increase in coverage, an uptick in convective
intensity has been noted as well. This is particularly true in the
Hyde/Hand county area of South Dakota, and now spreading into
Spink/Beadle counties, where a supercell storm -- now undergoing
complex evolution -- is indicated. This storm had been moving
east-northeast along a weak/roughly southeast-to-northwest boundary
per the base reflectivity loop from the KABR WSR-88D, which likely
aided in enhancement of updraft rotation over a several volume scan
time frame.

Evening RAOBs from ABR and particularly MPX depict a favorable
thermodynamic environment for continued convective increase, driven
by low-level warm advection, but gradual boundary-layer
cooling/stabilization is ongoing. Thus, while fairly strong
low-level shear is indicated across the region, tornado risk should
remain local/limited, and should begin to diminish gradually over
the next few hours. Meanwhile, as storms continue to increase in
coverage, expect risk for hail, as well as locally enhanced wind
gusts, to persist, with some risk spreading east of the watch with
time. A new WW -- or extension of the existing watch -- may be
needed to cover this potential as convective coverage expands.

..Goss.. 06/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44209880 44619874 45789826 46679662 46839485 45429408
44879457 44159719 44209880



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