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ACUS11 KWNS 141921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141920
FLZ000-142145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Areas affected...west central Florida coastal area

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141920Z - 142145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind and a tornado or two
will undergo a modest increase this afternoon into early evening
over the west central Florida coastal area. It remains uncertain
whether a WW will be needed in the short term, but trends will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a warm front or rain cooled
boundary extends across the FL Peninsula from near Daytona Beach
southwest to just north of the Tampa area. South of this boundary,
the surface layer is destabilizing with upper 60s F dewpoints and
temperatures rising through the 70s. The upper low remains cutoff
well to the west of FL with minor shortwave ridging above the warm
sector and relatively warm temperatures aloft resulting in weak
700-500 mb lapse rates, limiting MLCAPE to 500-1000 J/kg. The
northern end of a line of organized storms with a bowing segment is
in the process of moving onshore and will soon affect Citrus county.
Tendency has been for storms to weaken as they move inland where
weak instability exists north of the warm front. However, as the
warm sector continues to destabilize, the chances for storms to
survive and remain organized farther inland should gradually
increase into early evening. Tampa wind profiles show large
hodographs with 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity and 43
kt 0-6 km shear supportive of supercells and bowing segments, but
conditional upon the development of sufficient instability. Trends
will continue to be monitored this afternoon as storms approach the
west central Florida Coast.

..Dial/Hart.. 12/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28298272 28798261 29068275 29238220 28508195 27898207
27398255 27808282 28298272



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