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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1708

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, December 14, 2018 01:12:50
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140012
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140012
    FLZ000-ALZ000-140115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1708
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0612 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

    Areas affected...the barrier islands of southern AL and near the
    FL/AL border

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 140012Z - 140115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Several weak supercells will approach the barrier islands
    south of Mobile Bay and near the FL/AL border. Cool/stable
    conditions in the low levels will limit the brief/weak tornado risk.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a warm front roughly 40
    nm south of AL barrier islands. Conditions south of the warm front
    are hospitable to weak surface-based CAPE (200-500 J/kg) whereas
    north of the boundary SBCAPE is nil. The KMOB VAD shows a strongly
    veering wind profile supporting storm rotation. Several updrafts in
    the shelf waters south of the AL coast have acquired supercell
    rotation during the past 1-2 hours.

    The warm front is forecast to very slowly advance north during the
    evening and approach the coast. As a result, a couple of weak
    mesocyclones may move towards or affect the immediate coast.
    However, given the poor low-level lapse rates acting as a limiting
    factor, it seems unlikely a brief/weak tornado would move onshore.
    The immediate coastal areas of AL and the western FL Panhandle will
    continue to be monitored.

    ..Smith/Edwards.. 12/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...

    LAT...LON 29918834 30248807 30398710 29978700 29918834



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