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ACUS11 KWNS 131916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131916
TXZ000-OKZ000-132145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1707
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Areas affected...north central and northeast Texas area

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131916Z - 132145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for mainly a few instances
of marginally severe hail through early evening. A couple of locally
strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are also possible.
Overall threat does not appear sufficient for a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a cold front stretched from a weak
surface low near Gainsville TX southwest to near Del Rio. A
pre-frontal trough extends from near Dallas to near Huntsville, and
the atmosphere has destabilized in a narrow corridor. However,
extensive clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates have limited MLCAPE
to 500-1000 J/kg across north central TX and showers, and
thunderstorms are currently developing along a pre-frontal trough.
This activity may undergo modest intensification with additional
storms possible along the cold front as forcing for ascent and
steeper mid-level lapse rates attending a progressive shortwave
trough begin to interact with western fringe of warm sector. The
stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will remain south
of this region, with modest vertical shear (30-35 kt) supportive of
multicells and possibly some marginal supercell structures. Hail
approaching severe levels appears to be the main threat, but given
cooling temperatures aloft, low LCLS and presence of the slow-moving pre-frontal boundary, a brief non-supercell tornado or two cannot be
ruled out despite small 0-1 km hodographs.

..Dial/Hart.. 12/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32329675 33039712 33919678 33999610 33289523 32289511
31729544 31799626 32329675



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