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ACUS11 KWNS 162016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162015
SDZ000-NEZ000-162145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Areas affected...Southwest/Central SD...Northwest NE and NE
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 162015Z - 162145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is possible later this
afternoon into early evening, with a primary threat of large hail
and locally damaging winds. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...At 20Z, a surface low is located over eastern CO, with
a nearly stationary surface boundary extending northeast through
western NE into central/northeast SD. Temperatures have warmed well
into the 90s F to the south of the boundary, while rich low-level
moisture resides near and just to the north of the boundary. Given
these surface conditions and steep midlevel lapse rates,
moderate-to-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 2000-3500 J/kg) has developed
from western NE into southern SD. Meanwhile, sufficient midlevel
flow is resulting in effective shear values of 35-45 kt along and to
the north of the boundary.

As a midlevel trough currently noted over eastern CO moves
north-northeastward into this evening, thunderstorm initiation is
expected along and to the north of the surface boundary, with other
ongoing convection across the CO Front Range potentially expanding northeastward with time into the NE Panhandle. Initial discrete
convection may evolve into a few supercells capable of large hail
and locally damaging wind. Some tornado potential will also exist
with any supercell interacting with the frontal boundary, though
generally weak low-level shear should temper the tornado threat.
With time, evolution into one or more clusters is possible, with a
continued threat of locally severe wind/hail.

Given the threats mentioned above, Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance is expected by 21Z.

..Dean/Grams.. 06/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 41300382 42670391 44790105 45229983 45529897 44609876
44009849 42620025 41710158 41110323 41300382



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