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ACUS11 KWNS 162006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162006
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeast SD...far southeast ND...and
western MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 162006Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
area around 5-7pm CDT. A few of these storms will be severe, with an
attendant threat of a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.
A tornado watch will likely be issued by 4pm CDT.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field expanding/spreading north across the region this afternoon, as the
boundary layer continues to warm/moisten behind earlier convection.
As weak mid-level ascent overspreads the eastern Dakotas from the
west and a low-level jet strengthens into early evening, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a front stretching from
northeast South Dakota east/northeast into central Minnesota.

South of this front, very rich moisture and temps in the 80s are
combining with steep lapse rates aloft to yield around 2000-3000
J/kg of MLCAPE currently. Considerable veering of winds with height
will be favorable for supercells, capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two may be possible,
owing to ample storm-relative helicity accompanying the
strengthening low-level jet. This particular threat may be highly
regulated by RFD evolutions that are characteristic of HP
structures, owing to some weakness in mid-level storm-relative flow. Regardless, a tornado watch will likely be issued by 4pm CDT.

..Picca/Grams.. 06/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44209679 44259851 44799875 45559886 46069754 46509502
46319459 45549439 44439510 44209679



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