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ACUS11 KWNS 161824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161823
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Areas affected...Eastern NM...West TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161823Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon as thunderstorms spread eastward. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have rapidly increased in coverage this
afternoon across eastern NM, as rich low/mid-level moisture has
spread into the region ahead of the remnants of TC Bud. Poor
midlevel lapse rates and relatively weak deep-layer shear should
generally limit updraft intensity, but diabatic heating ahead of the
line will steepen low-level lapse rates, resulting in the potential
for isolated severe wind gusts (as recently observed in Artesia, NM)
with water-loaded downdrafts through the afternoon as convection
spreads eastward. Due to the marginal nature of threat, watch
issuance is not expected.

..Dean/Grams.. 06/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32020440 33440452 35090461 36260448 36700407 36740324
36460293 35000245 32750256 32010281 31800315 31720396
32020440



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