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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1700

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, December 09, 2018 04:32:49
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090332
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090332
    NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-090900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1700
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0932 PM CST Sat Dec 08 2018

    Areas affected...Western North Carolina into extreme southwestern
    Virginia

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 090332Z - 090900Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop across western NC over the next
    few hours then spread toward extreme southwestern VA. Snow rates may
    approach 1-2" per hour at times.

    DISCUSSION...Significant large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading
    from AL/TN region ahead of a progressive short-wave trough. Leading
    edge of this forcing appears to be spreading into the southern
    Appalachians at 0330z with substantial precipitation, roughly 200 mi
    wide, trailing into central AL. Back edge of this stronger zone of
    ascent is moving east at roughly 30-35kt which suggests residence
    time in this heavier precip shield may last at least 6 hours. Wedge
    of cooler air is banked against the higher terrain across western NC
    and forecast soundings suggest much of this initial precip will fall
    as snow. However, forecast soundings exhibit substantial warming at
    AVL after 10z which correlates well with back edge of aforementioned
    zone of ascent. A mix of precipitation after 10z could spread across
    the southern half of western NC. Latest HREF Ensemble guidance
    supports this scenario with snow rates approaching 1-2" per hour.

    ..Darrow.. 12/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

    LAT...LON 35598328 36508183 36738084 36288027 35628119 35148276
    35598328



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