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ACUS11 KWNS 080955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080954
TXZ000-OKZ000-081400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Sat Dec 08 2018

Areas affected...Portions of west TX into western north TX and far
southwestern OK

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 080954Z - 081400Z

SUMMARY...Precipitation will continue to transition west to east
from freezing rain/sleet to snow this morning. Snowfall rates in
excess of 1 inch per hour may occur locally, especially across parts
of west TX.

DISCUSSION...Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an
upper low is centered over eastern NM. Large-scale ascent preceding
this upper trough is supporting a zone of precipitation extending
from southeastern NM into west TX and southern/central OK. 30-35+
dBZ reflectivities from the KLBB radar are occurring generally along
a Plains to Lubbock to Dickens TX line as of 0945Z, and high CC
values suggest that nearly all of this precipitation is snow. Recent
local storm reports and observations also support snow as the
dominant precipitation type across much of west TX. Forecast
soundings from the RAP show saturation through much of the
troposphere over this region, and given the enhanced reflectivities,
moderate to locally heavy snow appears likely for at least a few
hours along/near the U.S. Highway 82 corridor as this snow band
develops eastward in tandem with the upper low. Short-term high
resolution guidance (RAP/HRRR) also supports the potential for
locally 1+ inch per hour snowfall rates. Farther east across western
north TX into far southwestern OK, a mixture of freezing rain and
sleet will likely transition to all snow through 14Z as a residual
warm nose centered around 850 mb erodes. Dual-pol CC data as of
0945Z from the KFDR radar shows this transition already occurring
from west to east across Foard, Knox, Wilbarger, and Baylor counties
in western north TX.

..Gleason.. 12/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 33000212 32970259 33080282 33410300 33970266 34280221
34430110 34500000 34409897 34049871 33749900 33589933
33390000 33170108 33000212



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