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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0388

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 11, 2018 20:37:42
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112037
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112037
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-112230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0388
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...western Oklahoma...and
    into southwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 112037Z - 112230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon
    along the dryline and front in the panhandle of TX and OK. Severe
    wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms. Limited
    storm coverage is expected to preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are possible on the dryline in the TX/OK
    panhandles later this afternoon as a weak shortwave ejects from the
    four corners region. Weak convergence along the dryline and a strong
    capping inversion will keep storm coverage isolated. East of the
    dryline, MLCAPE values have increased to 1500 J/kg and will increase
    through the afternoon as surface heating continues. Low-level
    moisture advection beneath a very steep EML with lapse rates above 9
    C/km will lead to further destabilization. If the cap does break
    this afternoon, marginal shear around 25 to 30 knots will support
    multicell organization. The high-based nature of these storms, being
    rooted above 600 mb, will limit the hail threat, but will provide a
    favorable environment for damaging winds given the steep EML and
    deeply mixed boundary layer. Thermodynamic profiles will quickly
    become unfavorable after sunset which will quickly bring an end to
    the storms. Despite the favorable environment for severe wind, a
    watch is unlikely given the isolated nature of any storm development
    and the short duration of the threat.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/11/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 34210142 35060106 35820071 37000092 37400090 37610067
    37680040 37700006 37669972 37589935 36949894 35929933
    34369959 33830000 33580049 33630086 33880124 34210142



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 18, 2019 17:42:44
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 181742
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181742
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-181945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0388
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

    Areas affected...southeast la to west-central al

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

    Valid 181742Z - 181945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across MS and southeast LA
    over the next several hours. New Tornado watch will be issued by 19z
    to address this threat.

    DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer air mass is gradually heating across MS
    into western AL where surface temperatures are now in the upper 70s.
    As a result, buoyancy has increased a bit downstream of ongoing
    corridor of strong-severe convection. Latest radar data exhibits an
    expanding MCS across ww82 that is expected to spread/develop toward
    central MS over the next few hours. While pre-MCS convection has
    struggled to exhibit long-lived supercell characteristics, this
    remains a possibility. New tornado watch is warranted downstream to
    address this upward-evolving convective threat.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 04/18/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30279131 33618930 32848772 29388959 30279131



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