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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0387

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 11, 2018 18:01:10
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111801
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111800
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-112000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0387
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018

    Areas affected...Southeastern Wyoming and far northern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

    Valid 111800Z - 112000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms are expected to develop off the Laramie Range
    and strengthen into supercells this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm
    watch with large hail as the primary threat is likely.

    DISCUSSION...A few lightning strikes have been detected with
    convection currently bubbling over the higher terrain. While
    surface-based instability is currently weak, daytime heating will
    lead to MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg later this afternoon.
    Effective shear around 50 knots will lead to supercell structures
    with any of the strong updrafts that develop. Storm coverage is
    expected to be scattered with only a few strong storms. Very steep
    mid-level lapse rates over 9 C/km combined with low freezing levels
    and a relatively cool boundary layer will likely make these storms
    prolific hail producers with a few significant hail reports
    possible. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as any supercell
    interacts with vorticity rich easterly low-level flow. The eastward
    progression of these storms will be limited due to the stabilizing
    influences of the low-level stratus east of the Wyoming/Nebraska
    border. The severe weather threat will be relatively confined
    spatially in the highlighted threat area with a diminishing threat
    by early evening, but given the favorable supercell environment, a
    severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/11/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40990629 41760629 42210613 42650580 42790573 42940553
    43160516 43180489 43180443 43100415 42840406 42400404
    42210411 41620418 41170412 40970409 40770406 40330407
    40030423 39820462 39800504 39850535 40120568 40990629



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 18, 2019 14:51:12
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 181451
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181450
    MSZ000-LAZ000-181615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0387
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0950 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

    Areas affected...Lower MS Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

    Valid 181450Z - 181615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Tornado Watch will likely be issued by 16z across portions
    of the lower MS Valley.

    DISCUSSION...Mid-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined
    short-wave trough over TX shifting east toward the lower MS Valley.
    In response to this feature, an expansive corridor of convection has
    evolved across the Sabine River Valley into the northwestern Gulf of
    Mexico. Over the last hour or so, warm advection-induced convection
    has evolved just off the LA coast ahead of a remnant MCV along the
    upper TX coast. It appears this warm advection-convection will
    advance north across southern LA into southwestern MS into the early
    afternoon hours. Gradual intensification is expected with
    pre-frontal supercells possible. Otherwise, primary storm mode
    should be more linear in nature focused along the advancing wind
    shift. Tornado threat will be highest with the pre-frontal
    supercells and damaging winds should be focused with the linear
    storms.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 04/18/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 29549345 31729258 32849118 32179002 29289120 29549345



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