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ACUS11 KWNS 031456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031455
FLZ000-031630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 AM CST Mon Dec 03 2018

Areas affected...Northeast FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031455Z - 031630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind and perhaps a
tornado will peak within the hour in northeast FL.

DISCUSSION...An embedded supercell has emerged from a larger area of
convection that will approach the northeast FL coast of Duval and
northern Saint Johns counties by 1530z. The near-storm environment
will remain favorable for the embedded rotating updrafts given some
low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH close to 200 m2/s2) and
effective bulk shear near 50 kt, in a moist environment with MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg. However, regional VWPs show a gradual tendency
for low-level flow to veer to more westerly and low-level shear to
weaken. This should result in a diminishing threat for a tornado
beyond 1530z, though an isolated damaging gust could still be
possible through late morning into early afternoon. Given the
short-term nature of the threat, a watch appears unlikely.

..Thompson/Hart.. 12/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

LAT...LON 29778117 29578186 29818235 30178224 30428173 30328131
29778117



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