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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1694

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, December 02, 2018 22:29:14
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 022129
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022128
    PAZ000-OHZ000-022300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1694
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 PM CST Sun Dec 02 2018

    Areas affected...Northern and northeastern Ohio into far northwest
    Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 022128Z - 022300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed in northern
    Ohio. These storms may lead to some gusty winds through the
    afternoon. No watch is expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Showers have developed across northern Ohio this
    afternoon ahead of a potent mid-level shortwave. Some of these
    showers have had lightning at times. Surface based instability is
    limited ahead of this convection as dewpoints mixed out into the low
    40s. However, MUCAPE around 250 J/kg will be sufficient for
    continued occasional thunderstorms from this activity. Given the
    well-mixed boundary layer ahead of this convection, and the strong
    wind field, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with the
    stronger storms. No watch is anticipated at this time due to
    questions about the number of strong updrafts which can develop in
    the limited buoyancy environment, but trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    ..Bentley.. 12/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 41608319 40968334 40398337 40238325 40378210 40668104
    41308018 41847994 42297995 42418052 42068189 41608319



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