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ACUS11 KWNS 110417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110416
NEZ000-110545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

Areas affected...Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81...

Valid 110416Z - 110545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk will spread across southern/eastern portions
of ww81.

DISCUSSION...MCS has evolved over central NE tonight along the nose
of LLJ that is expected to veer after midnight. Convection has
gradually organized as it spread off the higher Plains region and
becomes more focused along a corridor of enhanced low-level warm
advection. While the majority of this activity is likely rooted
above the boundary layer, flanking updrafts across Dawson/Lincoln
Counties appears to be ingesting more buoyant parcels. Severe wind
gusts have been reported on latest surface observations from
KBBW/KVTN and there is some concern this may continue for the next
few hours along/just north of wind shift. Hail may also accompany
this activity as it spreads across eastern/southern portions of
ww81.

..Darrow.. 05/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41010200 41270009 42239932 42649834 41469761 40499824
40480174 41010200



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ACUS11 KWNS 180717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180716
ILZ000-MOZ000-180915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Areas affected...portions of east-central Missouri into parts of
southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 180716Z - 180915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Limited/local severe risk may continue for a few hours,
though WW is not anticipated downstream from WW 80.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a weakening band of storms
moving quickly eastward across southwest/south-central Missouri,
with the storms likely to be slightly elevated above a weakly stable
boundary layer -- per 06Z SGF special RAOB, and subsequent, slight
downward trends in surface temperatures/dewpoints across the area.
While gusty winds will remain possible as long as the band retains
any semblance of organization, risk for winds in excess of severe
levels should continue to gradually diminish.

Farther east into portions of southern Missouri, a cluster of
elevated/locally stronger storms is ongoing. While occasional,
stronger storm pulses have been capable of producing hail near
severe levels per WDSS MESH data, the limited degree of instability
should continue to temper large hail risk. As such, a new WW --
downstream of WW 80 over southwest Missouri -- is not anticipated.

..Goss/Edwards.. 04/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38259274 39179166 39629023 39488799 38258856 37169247
38259274



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