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ACUS11 KWNS 020528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020527
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-020700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sat Dec 01 2018

Areas affected...Southern Georgia...northern Florida and adjacent
portions of the Southeast

Concerning...Tornado Watch 435...

Valid 020527Z - 020700Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 435 continues.

SUMMARY...Convective development, including supercells with some
risk for a tornado, remains possible, perhaps mainly across far
southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia (roughly from Dothan
AL to Albany GA) through 1-2 AM EST. Thereafter, continuing severe
weather potential becomes more uncertain, and it is not clear
another watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Confluent, 30-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow persists
off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, through northern Florida,
southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia. This is maintaining an
influx of seasonably moist and unstable air, which continues to
support considerable thunderstorm development.

Convection appears mostly rooted within isentropic ascent above at
least a shallow rain-cooled surface-based air mass. The southern
edge of this air mass has slowly advected farther inland this
evening, and is now generally near/north of the northern
Florida/Florida Panhandle border. This is beneath the supporting
zone of strongest upper-level difluence/divergence, which the latest
Rapid Refresh suggests will continue gradually shifting
northeastward into the Carolinas through 06-08z.

As this occurs, mid/upper support for continuing convective
development across the eastern Gulf coast region becomes more
unclear. It is possible that any lingering severe threat may
maximize during the 06-07Z time frame across parts of far
southeastern Alabama into southwest Georgia, coupled with the inland
advecting unstable boundary layer, on the southeastern periphery of
the broad surface cyclone centered over the lower Missouri Valley.

..Kerr.. 12/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 31548591 32118450 32168315 31238306 30748477 30868583
31548591



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