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ACUS11 KWNS 011646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011645
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-011845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Sat Dec 01 2018

Areas affected...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011645Z - 011845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across the Florida Panhandle
this afternoon. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado are the primary
threats.

DISCUSSION...Northwest-southeast oriented corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms over the northern Gulf basin is advancing slowly
toward the FL Panhandle. This activity appears to be correlated
strongly with leading edge of higher theta-e air mass in association
with focused low-level warm advection. Latest CAM guidance depicts
this corridor of storms well and suggests this activity will
propagate inland over the next few hours. Some supercell structures
are noted offshore and shear profiles favor deep rotating storms.
While damaging winds are the primary threat, some tornado potential
does exist. WW is being considered for this convection.

..Darrow/Hart.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 29818821 30948665 30758463 29808437 29168625 29818821



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